Estimating and projecting urbanization and city growth
Although there has been a great blurring of urban-rural distinctions, the demand for urban population projections for various purposes remains strong. This project aims to extend current urban projections carried out by the United Nations Population Division in two ways: (1) Roughly modify estimates of current urbanization levels to produce a set of urbanization levels by country that are more comparable than the current ones that rely on national definitions of urbanization; (2) Both for the urbanization estimates based on national definitions and for the modified set of estimates, to use a new technique for the probabilistic projection of percent urban, using a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach.
The urban agglomeration figures supplied to the United Nations by member countries suffer from comparability problems. For some Asian countries, we will build on earlier work by the PI to develop modified estimates of the urbane agglomeration estimates for a number of major Asian cities, and we will investigate alternative approaches for projecting urban agglomeration and city populations.